Furman (16-10, 7-6 SoCon) heads into Lexington today with a sense of urgency that has been building for over a week. After three straight losses (all by five points or fewer) the Paladins find themselves in a mid-February skid that they have to snap immediately to keep their top-four seeding hopes alive for Asheville.
Today’s 1:00 PM tip-off pits them against a VMI (6-20, 1-12 SoCon) squad that has lost 11 straight games. On paper, it’s a “get-right” game for Furman, but VMI is hosting their annual “Red Out” game, and as the Paladins have learned lately, no lead is safe and no opponent can be overlooked in the second half.
Right Guys at the Right Time
The good news for Bob Richey is that the roster is as healthy as it’s been all season. The challenge now is getting all those pieces to click simultaneously during crunch time.
• Asa Thomas is back in form. In Wednesday’s loss to Mercer, Thomas logged 33 minutes and led the team with 14 points. His return adds that elite perimeter threat that forces defenses to stretch.
• Cooper Bowser continues to be a force since his return. He put up 11 points and 7 rebounds against Mercer, and his presence alongside Charles Johnston gives Furman a significant interior advantage today. VMI struggles with size, so expect Bowser to be a focal point early.
• Teams are attacking Wilkins. While he was held to just 7 points by a physical Mercer defense, he still managed 5 assists. Look for him to attack VMI’s perimeter defenders, who rank near the bottom of the league in field goal percentage defense.
Scouting the Keydets
Coach Andrew Wilson has had a tough fourth season in Lexington, but VMI still possesses a few players who can make it a long afternoon if you let them get comfortable.
• TJ Johnson. He is the clear leader for the Keydets, averaging 18.4 PPG and 7.2 RPG. He’s a high-volume shooter who will take 15+ shots tonight. Eddrin Bronson and Collin O’Neal will likely split the duty of trying to stay in his jersey all game.
• Tan Yildizoglu. If Furman allows him to penetrate and find open shooters, the Keydets could hang around longer than the Paladins would like.
The Big Question: Can They Close?
The elephant in the room isn’t the talent, it’s the execution. In the last three games, Furman has either held a significant lead or been neck-and-neck late, only to see the offense stagnate.
• Against Mercer: Led at the half, but was held to just one field goal over an eight-minute stretch in the second half.
• Against UNCG: Blew a 15-point lead.
• Against ETSU: Blew a 12-point halftime lead.
To win today, Furman must play a full 40 minutes. They cannot afford another second-half slump where they settle for contested threes instead of utilizing Bowser and Johnston in the paint.
Three Keys to the Game
Dominate the Paint: Furman averages 38.6 RPG compared to VMI’s 32.5. With Bowser and Johnston healthy, the Paladins should win the rebounding battle and second-chance points by a wide margin.
Poise Under Pressure: When VMI makes a run, Furman needs to run their sets. No more eight-minute scoring droughts.
Perimeter Discipline: TJ Johnson is dangerous from deep. Furman needs to contest his looks without fouling, as they gave up 21 free throw attempts to Mercer on Wednesday.
The Forecast
Furman is the significantly better team, and this team will get back on track. If they can move the ball, find Thomas and House on the wings, and let Bowser dominate the interior, they should walk out with a double-digit win.