Can the 6-Seed Be Furman’s Lucky Number?
There is no more room for “what-ifs.” After a regular-season finale where Furman stumbled against a scorching-hot Western Carolina squad, the Paladins (19-12, 10-8 SoCon) find themselves exactly where nobody expected them to be in November: the #6 seed.
But here is the strange, beautiful reality of the SoCon Tournament: the bracket might actually favor the underdog. By landing in the bottom half, Furman avoids a potential collision with the #1 seed until the championship game. To get there, they first have to go through a team they’ve already solved twice this year: the #3 seed Samford Bulldogs (18-13, 11-7 SoCon).
The Better Path
While falling to the 6-seed felt like a gut punch on Saturday, look at the matchups. If Furman handles business Saturday, they’ll likely face the winner of the Wofford vs UNCG/VMI matchup in the semifinals. This keeps them away from the top-seeded gauntlet on the other side of the bracket (ETSU, Mercer, and WCU). For a team that has struggled with consistency, having this path to Monday night is a massive advantage.
The Samford Rematch: 2-0 With a “Catch”
Furman swept the regular-season series against Samford, winning 77-73 in Birmingham and 78-73 in Greenville. You know what they say: “It’s hard to beat a team three times in the same season”. But here is the kicker: they did that without Cooper Bowser and Asa Thomas.
Think about that. Furman beat the #3 seed in the conference twice while missing two of their three best players.
• Alex Wilkins (17.3 PPG) had to play like a superhero in those games.
• Now, with Asa Thomas (13.1 PPG) back to space the floor and Cooper Bowser (13.6 PPG) shooting near 79% from the paint, the Paladins have a level of depth and size that Samford hasn’t had to defend yet.
SoCon POY
There’s no sugarcoating it: Jadin Booth is the most dangerous man in Asheville right now. The SoCon Player of the Year is coming off a 40-point masterpiece against UNCG to close the season. He is a bucket-getter in the purest sense.
The strategy for Bob Richey’s squad tonight has to be disciplined. You aren’t going to stop a guy like Booth from getting 20 or even 25. The goal is to make him a “volume scorer.” If he drops 35 but the rest of the Bulldogs are held in check, Furman wins. The Paladins cannot afford to let Samford’s secondary shooters get comfortable while they over-rotate on Booth.
War in the Paint: Johnston vs. Faulkner
If Furman wants to survive and advance, the rebounding effort against Western Carolina has to stay in the rearview mirror. Being out-rebounded was the “shock” of the finale, and it cannot happen against Samford’s interior.
Johnston is the key for defensive boards. He has to stay vertical and force Dylan Faulkner into tough, contested hooks. If Bowser and Johnston can win the battle of the boards, Furman’s guards will be unleashed. He had 30 rebounds combined in the previous 2 games vs. Samford
The Verdict: Now or Never
Last game was a “flush the tape” game. The losses down the stretch don’t matter if Furman can string together three wins in three days. They have the size, they finally have the health, and they have ability to be one of the best defensive teams in the league.
The offense works best when it’s moving. If Wilkins stays composed and the Paladins play with the defensive efficiency their depth now allows, the Dins will play deep later this weekend.
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